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California voters will play a key role in determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and by how much, as voting for the 2026 midterm election concludes Tuesday.
Democrats are poised to flip at least three seats currently held by California Republicans after voters approved Proposition 50 last year, which redrew five of California’s districts to favor Democrats as a countermeasure to pro-Republican gerrymandering in Texas.
The remaining two redrawn districts — one in the Central Valley and the other in San Diego and Riverside counties — are more competitive, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration.
A handful of races feature progressive challengers seeking to oust longtime incumbents who could push the party to the left if they are successful.
Several California congressional races are expected to be close, as counties tabulate ballots received up to seven days after Election Day.
Here’s what CalMatters is watching:
Central Valley, San Diego area seats pivotal
California’s most hotly contested race features 12-year Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao of Hanford, a dairy farmer and perpetual target for national Democrats, and political newcomer Randy Villegas, a political science professor.
Democrats hope Villegas, who is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, can defy conventional political wisdom and win in the historically conservative, agriculture-heavy Central Valley. Villegas supports Medicare for All and universal child care, although he has also called to suspend federal taxes on gas and diesel.
Valadao, the lone remaining Republican who voted to impeach President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021 riots, is seeking his seventh term. He touts the importance of bipartisanship and independent thinking, but has faced tough questioning over his decision to support Trump’s megabill that will ultimately strip health care coverage from more than 2 million Californians in the next four years.
Further south in San Diego and Riverside counties, two local elected officials — Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego City Council, and Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond — are competing to fill the seat of Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who chose to retire rather than seek reelection in a redrawn district.
Von Wilpert and Desmond are running traditionally centrist campaigns that harken to pre-Trump politics. Von Wilpert has eschewed the insurgent progressive left and instead campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris. Desmond has worked overtime to distance himself from Trump and the president’s MAGA rhetoric, despite receiving Trump’s endorsement.
Public polls have consistently shown von Wilpert with a slight lead over Desmond, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report switched the race from “tossup” to “lean Democrat” back in March. Internal campaign polling suggests the race is close.
Progressives try to remake Democratic Party
Several California races feature two Democrats because of the state’s top-two primary election system.
Among the most-watched is the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has endorsed Connie Chan, a San Francisco supervisor. Chan, a Chinese immigrant from Taiwan, is known for opposing urban development that could displace tenants or disrupt a neighborhood’s character. She faces state Sen. Scott Wiener, a prolific legislator who has authored several laws to expedite housing production and secure competitive wages on state-subsidized projects.
In the Sacramento area, an intergenerational “battle of the ages” is underway between Rep. Doris Matsui, 82, and Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41. Matsui has a massive financial advantage and has loaned her campaign $4 million since the primary. Vang has political momentum as a young, insurgent progressive who is media savvy and able to directly engage with supporters via TikTok and Instagram.
And in Los Angeles, incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez faces a challenge from Democratic Socialist Angela Gonzales-Torres. The five-term congressmember won the June primary by double digits but has bled support amid a House ethics investigation into allegations of sexual assault, which he’s denied. A recent poll showed Gonzales-Torres leading 51% to Gomez’s 45%.
Upsets in Prop. 50 districts could endanger majority
Three incumbent Republican or former Republican lawmakers are expected to lose their jobs in the wake of Prop. 50.
Either Rep. Young Kim or Rep. Ken Calvert, who are both competing for California’s 40th District, will be left jobless. Gerrymandering drastically reshaped Calvert’s 41st District, but rather than retire, he chose to challenge his colleague Kim. Both scrambled to “out-Trump” the other in the primary election but Kim has since returned to a more centrist, fiscally conservative approach.
Rep. James Gallagher, who succeeded the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa in representing the rural north state in the 1st Congressional District, is poised to lose to former Senate President ProTem Mike McGuire, a Democrat. The district was redrawn to remove several conservative and rural areas near the Oregon-California border.
Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party earlier this year, is seeking reelection in the 6th Congressional District rather than his former 3rd District, which was significantly reshaped to favor Democrats. He faces Dr. Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator running as an anti-Make America Healthy Again candidate. Kiley hopes to pull votes from Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats.
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